Wednesday, March 31st, 2010
Inside the playoff chase

By Jason Compton
FWL.org.uk

With six weeks to go, most teams in the league still have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. An astounding seven of the league's 18 teams have 4-4 records, good enough for tiebreaking distance of a wild card seed. Who is in the driver's seat, and who is already planning their draft?

AFC

Like Their Chances

Sacramento Surge (7-1, currently first in conference and AFC West)

In the AFC this season, there is the Surge, and then there is everybody else. The team seemed stuck in preseason gear in the Week 1 loss to the London Monarchs, but the Surge have been relentless since. A close scare to cellar-dwelling Birmingham could mean things are not what they seem, but it is more likely that a healthy Sacramento will continue to pummel teams en route to home field advantage throughout the playoffs. As long as Kory Chapman stays healthy, the Surge remain the clear favorites to win FWL Bowl XXI.

Orlando Thunder (6-2, currently second in conference, first in AFC East)

After several lousy seasons in a row, the Thunder's expectations this year under new ownership must have been modest. Draft well. Develop some players. Stay healthy. Win a few games, preferably at home, to rebuild a dwindling ticket base. That the Thunder have the biggest divisional cushion in the league comes as a shock to absolutely everyone. Kliff Kingsbury has thrown some ugly interceptions in recent weeks, but nifty fourth quarter drives and bold defensive stands continue to bail this team out.

San Antonio Riders (5-3, currently third in conference, second in AFC West)

The Riders have played opponents close this year—not a single one of their games has been decided by more than six points. Sitting in sole possession of the top wildcard spot, the Riders still have their sole contest against the juggernaut Surge coming up, and two scraps with fellow wildcard contender Montreal. Working in the Riders' favor, the team has played well on the road (3-1), has built a respectable conference record (4-3), and has the downtrodden Amsterdam Admirals and Rhein Fire coming up in non-conference action. A divisional title seems improbable unless the Riders can take out the Surge in Week 12, but a wildcard spot is a comfortable likelihood.

In the Hunt

Montreal Machine (4-4, currently fourth in conference, third in AFC West)

The smart money in this league doesn't bet against the Machine, which has won roughly a billion games under QB Danny Wuerffel and GM David Harwood. Still, not is all wine and roses in Quebec. Falling to the basement NY/NJ Knights robbed the Machine of a perfect chance to establish some daylight. The team's 4-4 record glosses over some ropey games and a complete lack of road victories. Going 7-7 could allow a rival to sneak past for the fourth playoff seed, so picking up at least one win on the current three-game road swing is vital.

Mexico Aztecs and Raleigh-Durham Skyhawks (4-4 in AFC West behind Machine)

Currently out of playoff position on tiebreakers, it still won't take much for one of these teams to vault past the other and the Machine to nab a wildcard berth. The Aztecs are the better team on paper, while the Skyhawks' stingy defense has rescued the team's league-worst offense enough times to keep it in contention. Working in both teams' favor is the fact that they don't have to face the unstoppable Surge again this year. The unusual back-to-back home-and-home series in Weeks 11-12 presents an interesting opportunity. If one team manages the sweep and can hold serve through the rest of its schedule, it stands a chance of sneaking into the playoffs. A split probably dooms both squads to finish out of the money.

Fading Fast

Ohio Glory (3-5, second in AFC East)

With four teams ahead of the Glory in the wildcard chase, things don't look terribly good in Columbus. However, the Glory's remaining schedule is actually not too bad. Four home dates remain, and the Glory get two cracks at the hot-and-cold NY/NJ Knights. If Orlando sustains a key injury or a further deterioration in offensive discipline, the Glory could be just one game back with a chance to win the division when they host the Thunder in Week 14. Stranger things have happened in sport. Every silver lining has a dark cloud, however. For the Glory, that comes in the form of a rematch with the Surge in two weeks. If the Glory can't manage to split the series, the setback might be too great to overcome.

Wait 'Til Next Year

New York/New Jersey Knights (2-6, third in AFC East) and Birmingham Fire (1-7, fourth in AFC East)

These Week 1 dance partners just couldn't get anything started this season. Anemic offense has hampered the Fire, while the Knights have suffered from being on the wrong side of late-game heroics. Each gets tormented by having to visit the Surge before the end of the season (although the Surge are likely to have clinched and could be playing backups by time the Knights' Week 14 contest rolls around), but dates with the Riders, Thunder, Glory and Skyhawks create plenty of spoiler opportunities.

EFC

Like Their Chances

Scottish Claymores (6-2, currently first in conference and EFC West)

Two years ago, the Claymores had the misfortune to win the EFC West with a commanding 12-2 record in the same season the undefeated Admirals brutalized the EFC East, and subsequently smacked the Claymores around in the EFC title game. This year the Claymores are the class of the conference and like their chances of going all the way. They will have to win on the road in order to seal the deal, however—three of their remaining four divisional games are away contests. A punishing ground attack and the league's best pass defense could give them the cushion they need to clinch the division in the next four weeks.

Frankfurt Galaxy (5-3, currently second in conference, first in EFC East)

The Galaxy have played a lot of squeakers this year, but a surprising loss to the Admirals and again this week to the Berlin Thunder has this perennial contender looking like a potential late-season wobbler. Difficulty establishing a ground game has hurt the Galaxy this season and a punishing three-game road trip lurks in the background, and a serious slip could cause the Galaxy to fall behind the rabid pack of teams at 4-4. Like the Orlando Thunder, this current #2 seed has scored less than it has surrendered, raising the prospect of a late-season collapse. However, the Galaxy are the steadiest organization in the conference, and with Berlin nipping at their heels, we expect a playoff finish.

Berlin Thunder (5-3, currently third in conference, second in EFC East)

After an inconsistent start, the Thunder may be playing hot potato with the Frankfurt Galaxy down the stretch. A three-game winning streak has Berlin just behind Frankfurt on tiebreakers. After the Rob Adamson miracle, this might be a team of destiny.

In the Hunt

Paris Musketeers (4-4, currently fourth in conference, second in EFC West)

The top contender out of a staggering four teams tied at 4-4 for the second wildcard spot, the Musketeers have baffled. How can a team lose by 15 to the AFC East doormat Birmingham Fire but later annihilate the division-leading Orlando Thunder by 17? There is no answer. Injuries are a partial explanation, but the long-suffering French fans want to see something good happen this year, circumstances be damned. Four home dates give them reason to keep their heads up.

Austria Dark Knights and London Monarchs (4-4 in EFC West behind Musketeers)

An awful lot of 4-4 teams will be digging deep for that little something extra to help them separate from the pack. The logjam between these two teams should be settled in the next three weeks, as they play their home-and-home series. Austria has the benefit of conference victim Amsterdam in the middle, while London will have to face seed-controlling Paris.

The Monarchs are hamstrung by a second-half schedule with five road games, including a season-closing tilt at likely AFC East winner Frankfurt. London's place on this list is tenuous at best, but they have done a good job preying on the weak the past two games. A repeat of last year where an 8-6 team missed out on the playoffs due to tiebreakers seems quite likely.

Fading Fast

Barcelona Dragons (4-4 in EFC West behind Musketeers)

This past week couldn't have gone much better for the Dragons, except if the Monarchs had lost. Beating fourth seed leader Paris helped the Dragons' cause but may be too little, too late—it was the team's first divisional win of the season. The Dragons can manage nothing better than a split with the other three AFC West teams in the wildcard race, and their weak divisional play means they are likely to come up short on tiebreakers. Worse still, five of the Dragons' six remaining games are against teams which had first-half winning records.

Wait 'Til Next Year

Amsterdam Admirals (2-6, third in EFC East) and Rhein Fire (2-6, fourth in EFC East)

Was a deal with the devil behind the Admirals' perfect season two years ago? Since then the Ads have gone a pedestrian 7-7 and now are left playing out the string in a season which got out of control very quickly.

Rhein can't win on the road, can't win when it counts in its division, and can't build any sort of consistent scoring attack.